The U.S. State Department has introduced a 12-month pilot program requiring citizens of Malawi and Zambia to pay a refundable $15,000 bond when applying for B-1/B-2 (tourist or business) visas. The policy aims to deter visa overstays and targets countries with high overstay rates, weak vetting, or citizenship-by-investment programs without residency requirements.
According to 2023 DHS data:
- 14% of Malawian and 11% of Zambian visitors overstayed their visas.
- Other high-overstay countries include Haiti (31%), Myanmar (27%), and Yemen (20%).
The program could expand to include other nations. This move aligns with President Trump’s broader immigration agenda in his second term, including:
- Ending humanitarian programs,
- Banning nationals from 12 countries,
- Revoking visas for students (some linked to pro-Palestinian activity or minor legal infractions).
Zambia’s foreign minister has stated they are seeking clarification on the policy’s implications.
Source: BBC NEWS
Having read this, I wondered, what were the overstay numbers like for the Caribbean (which I define as members and associate members of CARICOM) compared with the rates that the BBC article mentioned?
So, I decided to dig into the latest overstay data published by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to see how we stack up — not only against each other, but also in comparison to Malawi, Zambia, Myanmar (Burma) and Yemen.
My data source was Page 12, Section 3 FY 2023 Non-VWP Country B1/B2 Overstay Rates, of the Entry/Exit Overstay Report – Fiscal Year 2023 Report to Congress (published by The Department Of Homeland Security, U.S. Customs and Border Protection).
A few notes:
There was no data for Montserrat.
Expected Departures – Number of people from Country ‘X’ who were supposed to leave the U.S. during the reporting period (usually a fiscal year).
Out-of-Country Overstays – People who overstayed their visa but later left the U.S. (i.e., they’re now outside the country).
Suspected In-Country Overstays – People believed to have overstayed and remained in the U.S. past their visa expiration.
Total Overstays – Sum of all overstays = out-of-country) + in-country.
Total Overstay Rate – Percentage of overstays out of expected departures.
Suspected In-Country Overstay Rate – Percentage of current overstays (still believed to be in the U.S.).
A few things stood out to me:
- Most Caribbean countries have in-country overstay rates below 2%, including Barbados (0.43%), Trinidad and Tobago (0.70%), and Antigua and Barbuda (1.24%).
- Haiti is the major outlier with a staggering 31.06% in-country overstay rate — one of the highest globally.
- By contrast, Malawi (14.14%) and Zambia (10.45%) — the two countries selected for the bond program — have rates significantly higher than all but Haiti.
Even countries with higher absolute numbers of overstays, like Jamaica or the Bahamas, maintain relatively modest overstay rates (under 6%). That makes a strong case that most Caribbean states are not in the same category as Malawi or Zambia when it comes to visa compliance.
Based on the data, it’s clear that the vast majority of Caribbean countries recorded relatively low in-country overstay rates in 2023 — far below the thresholds seen in countries like Malawi, Zambia, and Myanmar. While a few countries, like Haiti and Jamaica, show higher numbers or percentages, the overall picture for the region is not one of widespread non-compliance. Whether the U.S. visa bond program expands to include other countries remains to be seen, but for now, the data helps put CARICOM’s position into perspective.